Weighing impact against effort means estimating how much a change could improve search performance and how much work it takes, then comparing the two. Google does not publish a prioritisation method, so this section is general explanation. Its sources support the limits on what can be known, which is where most of the difficulty lies.
Impact is an estimate, and the SEO Starter Guide is frank about that. It says there are no secrets that will automatically rank a site first, that not all changes will result in noticeable impact in search results, and that changes can take from a few hours to several months to show. Any impact figure in a plan is therefore a judgement supported by evidence, not a forecast to be guaranteed. Evidence can come from the site's own data: Google's Performance report shows which queries and pages already attract impressions and clicks, and where.
Effort is not only the hours of work. It includes who must do it, what must ship first and how risky the change is, which is why this stage sits next to the foundations guide. A change that looks small can be large if it depends on a rebuild.
Our SEO Strategy page frames the opportunity side as a grid of demand against how hard results are to win. High demand within reach is where to start. High demand that is hard to win is earned over time. Low demand that is within reach gives cheap, specific wins. Low demand that is hard to win is left alone. That grid is an illustrative framework, and real plots come from a site's own data.
Our Insights article on prioritising SEO work: impact, effort and the dependencies people forget goes further into the trade-offs.